Willem II v Fortuna Sittard

Eredivisie Matchweek 7 · Saturday 19 September 2026, 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC) · Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

Evidence measured to Thursday 17 September; both clubs have completed six league matches. Market figures were read afterwards, on 18 September. Neither team sheet is confirmed, so no line-up is predicted below.

The FairEleven view

There is no clear favourite here. The table says Fortuna by a distance; the chances behind the table describe a close match.

Fortuna are seventh on ten points and unbeaten away; Willem II are seventeenth on two, without a win.

Expected goals measures the quality of the chances a side creates: a total of 1.50 describes chances from which a typical team would score about one and a half goals. Willem II have produced 8.32 in six matches and allowed 14.38. Fortuna have produced 5.16 and allowed 16.09 — or 11.40 in five, leaving out their ten-man afternoon against AZ. Against sides outside the top four the two are nearly level: minus 0.65 a match for Willem II, minus 0.48 for Fortuna.

The eight-point gap lives mostly in one place: what happens once a shot is struck. It is also the least explained fact about either team.

Why

What lasts, and what may not

Expected goals on target measures the quality of the attempts that actually reached the goalkeeper. For Fortuna that figure has been higher than their chance quality in all six matches: 9.16 against 5.16, and they have scored twelve. For Willem II it has been lower in five of six: 5.76 against 8.32, and they have scored six.

The same measure cuts against Willem II at the other end: attempts on target against them have been worth 17.96, from chances worth 14.38, while Fortuna's opponents managed 14.88 from 16.09. Neither side's goalkeeping explains its goals conceded — nineteen and fourteen, both close to what the shots deserved.

So the durable facts are the chance totals: Willem II make chances steadily, and both defences give plenty away. The fact most likely to move is Fortuna's conversion — twelve goals from 4.92 expected in the five matches they finished with eleven men. Nobody has explained how they do it, and a gap that size is more likely to narrow than to hold. We do not call it elite finishing, and we do not call Willem II's record poor finishing either; six matches cannot separate skill from chance.

Where Willem II can hurt Fortuna

Willem II have not produced less than 1.12 expected goals in any match. Fortuna have allowed at least 2.03 in four of their five full-strength matches — to PSV and Ajax, but also to SC Cambuur and FC Groningen. The home side need only an ordinary evening to get chances.

Three of Willem II's last four goals came after the 75th minute, two of them turning a deficit into a draw. Fortuna have conceded from the 87th minute on in each of their last three matches, each time after taking off Mohamed Ihattaren. Two of those goals came when they were already 3-1 up, so this may be a side managing a lead rather than one fading.

Where Fortuna can hurt Willem II

Fortuna score first. They have done it in four of six matches and lost none of those four. Ihattaren opened the scoring at Groningen and at ADO Den Haag, and has three goals and an assist in his last three games. Willem II have scored first once in their last four matches, and held that lead for three minutes.

A lead also hands Willem II the job their record shows least of. Fortuna have never had more than 42 per cent of the ball, and they have started the same five defenders — Ivo Pinto, Philip Brittijn, Rodrigo Guth, Justin Hubner and Jasper Dahlhaus — in each of their last three matches. Willem II's one recent home game with most of the ball came against Excelsior, whose team sheet carried a 5-4-1 label: 59 per cent, sixteen shots, two on target, and a 0-3 defeat. Their best recent attacking display, against sc Heerenveen, came from 39 per cent.

That is one match, and sitting deep has not protected Fortuna either: Groningen took 23 shots against them from 68 per cent of the ball.

Availability and schedule

Saturday is Willem II's third league match in nine days, after AZ and the rescheduled trip to Ajax. Fortuna have had a week. Willem II started the same eleven in both. Nobody has reported on any player's condition, so we claim nothing from the schedule itself.

Willem II are without goalkeeper Thomas Didillon-Hödl (hamstring), with Maxime Delanghe having started the last three; centre-back Justin Hoogma (knee); and deadline signing Vito van Crooij (ankle). Kasper Boogaard carries a knock from Monday. Tonny Vilhena has started the last two in central midfield beside Calvin Twigt.

Fortuna are without Siebe Wylin, listed out until October, and Yassin Oukili (groin). Ole Romeny, sent off in August, returned to start against Ajax behind Lequincio Zeefuik; Anthony Descotte, who started the two games before, scored from the bench.

Injury listings for Jaden Slory, Per van Loon, Zeefuik and Moussa Gbemou were open when our evidence was measured, three have since closed, and all four have played lately, so their appearances are what we go on.

What would change this view

Fortuna's attempts arriving no better than their chances. Then the larger supply belongs to the home side, and ten points overstate the difference between these sides.

Willem II's attempts arriving as well as their chances. They did against Heerenveen, with five big chances; if that repeats, a first home win is a realistic outcome.

An early Fortuna goal. That has been their most reliable route, and it leaves Willem II attacking a crowded defence.

A changed Willem II eleven. One of Devin Haen or Uriël van Aalst scored or set up each of Willem II's last four goals.

Market Lens

We read the market only after our view was written, and on the result it agrees with us. Margin removed, one operator and an average of nineteen providers that may include it make Willem II about a 37 per cent chance, Fortuna 37 to 38 and the draw 25 to 26.

The disagreement is over who takes the shots. One operator's shot lines have Fortuna taking about two more than Willem II. Their record says the opposite: Fortuna took nine, eight and eight shots in their last three matches, Willem II between eight and sixteen in their last four.

We are not moving because of it. The market may expect Fortuna to have more of the ball than in any match this season. If they do, the shape this view rests on is what breaks. Our confidence was low before the market was read, and stays low.

No other market adds to this. The market expects around three goals, on which we hold no view.

No score is predicted here, and no probability is attached to anything above except the market's own.

The supporting evidence

Neither club's pressing or build-up has been described by anyone, so the reasoning above rests on results, chance quality and team sheets.

No formation is stated for Fortuna. Their last three team sheets carried three different formation labels over the same five defenders, so we name the players rather than a system. Willem II's last four team sheets each listed four defenders.

Where sources disagree on a match figure, the fuller match data is used throughout, read for all twelve matches at the same moment.

Watch who scores first, and then whether Fortuna's attempts keep arriving better than their chances.